Make believability-weighted decisions. - Ray Dalio (Principles)
It’s important to make decision based of nalbalaala
So how can ensure our idea/proposition is believable.
A practice I think make sense to sub-consciously factor in this principle in our decision making, is to analyze the idea using useful mental models.
A useful mental models that we found is the Business Expertise Triads.
Your idea should go through the Operation, Capital and Market, and come out with a stellar logic. Then, the idea is believable
To effectively analyze the idea, we should think of the idea survivability when we weigh it’s 2nd and 3rd order consequence within those triad environment.
Weigh-second and third order consequences.